20210921, 13:05  #45 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2×3×5×193 Posts 
Now 19 left, average delta increased, max delta is ~172.5K. Judging from progress per exponent in the past 3 days, the lowest and highest remaining will complete within a day or two, the rest will probably expire and be reissued, by 5 days from now; add 7 days for run on fast Cat0qualified systems and we get a projection of 20211003 for completion of verification to Mp#48*. The possibility of stall and expiration without poach on any one or more of the ~17 reissued could delay that. It would take more than a startedandthenstalled 30 day expiration and a noprogressreported 10 day expiration on the same reissued exponent, and no poaches, to delay to 20211116, which is 44 days after 20211003.
The alternate method is in close agreement with the 56M historical analogy method which now gives 20211002. From https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/ Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 20210921 12:45:12 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)
Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210921 at 13:16 
20210922, 21:34  #46 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
2^{2}×3^{2}×11 Posts 
Oh, no!..
For me, the question remains  how assignments with long overdue deadlines will be processed. Will they be forcibly taken away from the previous owners. Whether they will be processed from scratch or from the point where everything stopped. If the latest date is October 10, then does this mean that the cherished date will not come earlier than this moment. 
20210922, 22:23  #47  
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
3·47·71 Posts 
When they expire, they get reassigned to someone else. If the slowpoke turns in the result before the other person does, oh well.
Quote:
Quote:
Or other things can happen.... 

20210922, 22:39  #48 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
2^{2}·3^{2}·11 Posts 
Ok. Thanx!
This means there are rather big chances that my prediction will come true. 
20210923, 01:21  #49  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
1011010011110_{2} Posts 
Quote:
A little late to be learning the rules of operation for the system you've made predictions about. Don't know where you get October 10 from. Estimated completion, for an exponent that will expire and get reassigned far sooner, so the current estimated completion is irrelevant, perhaps. Run a line through the uppermost red x in your plot, at the slope of your red prediction line, and get ~Oct 5. Way outside +25 days from Nov 16. Quote:
An initial delay of a day or two or three from assignment to start of progress is normal in prime95 or mprime. See prime95's days of work to queue up setting in Options, Preferences. FYI there is hardware that can do such LLDC or the equivalent PRP/GEC/proofgeneration, in several HOURS. Code:
20210316 09:37:08 asr2/radeonvii0 57034589 LL 0 loaded: 0000000000000004 20210316 09:37:51 asr2/radeonvii0 57034589 LL 100000 0.18%; 431 us/it; ETA 0d 06:49; 51ebf4cd88bbcb14 ... 20210316 16:27:55 asr2/radeonvii0 57034589 LL 57034587 100.00%; 453 us/it; ETA 0d 00:00; c6d59ecf237f149e 20210316 16:27:55 asr2/radeonvii0 waiting for the Jacobi check to finish.. 20210316 16:28:10 asr2/radeonvii0 57034589 OK 57000000 (jacobi == 1) 20210316 16:28:10 asr2/radeonvii0 {"status":"C", "exponent":"57034589", "worktype":"LL", "res64":"c6d59ecf237f149e", "fftlength":"3145728", "shiftcount":"0", "program":{"name":"gpuowl", "version":"v6.11364g36f4e2a"}, "user":"kriesel", "computer":"asr2/radeonvii0", "aid":"74720917554D8F6A27FABDFF1149FFC1", "timestamp":"20210316 21:28:10 UTC"} Add ~2.7% or ~11 minutes for 57.75M: ~7 hours 2 minutes. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210923 at 02:15 

20210923, 03:04  #50 
Undefined
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair
2^{2}·1,571 Posts 

20210923, 08:22  #51  
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
2^{2}·3^{2}·11 Posts 
Quote:
But I am more of an observer than a participant. And I am committed to the principles of fair play and noninterference. 

20210923, 08:25  #52  
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
2^{2}·3^{2}·11 Posts 
Quote:
The game doesn't end there. And I am very good at long distances than at short ones. My earliest forecast, which I gave here on April 4, 2019, regarding the crossing of this level, was for September 12, 2021 ± 45 days: https://mersenneforum.org/showpost.p...5&postcount=12 And I think we can already start predicting the next level. I suggested the method of scoring for predictions above: https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...postcount=3442 Last fiddled with by greenskull on 20210923 at 08:39 

20210923, 12:45  #53 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2×3×5×193 Posts 
quickly meaning here, at a rate consistent with his latest prediction that was based on more application of statistics than understanding. Assuming he both has at least one cat0 rated system and is lucky enough to draw on it one of the 8 exponents that get reassigned in the next 3 days, that is.

20210923, 13:16  #54  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2·3·5·193 Posts 
Quote:
Quote:
predicted at https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...postcount=3072 Quote:
actual (delta days computed by https://www.timeanddate.com/date/duration.html) 48M 20190905 +48 days (miss) 49M 20191119 +36 (hit at +80% of error bar value) 50M 20200223 +47 days (miss) +45 days is a 91 day wide target, rather broad as the side of a barn, for a process that TAKES ~91 days on average per million of milestone advance recently. (# of milestones by year: 2020: 5; 2019: 3; 2018:4; 2017: 4; etc https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/) Note that the average error in your earlier predictions above was +43.7 days, quite close to the difference between our current projections for reaching Mp#48* of +46 days, and to the 45 day error bar value. IIRC you changed your estimation method since, and chose not to compensate for observed past consistent prediction bias demonstrated by 48M, 49M, 50M. The 20210912 old predicted date for Mp#48* has already passed. It would likely work out thanks to the broad error bar of +45 days, except for having replaced (repudiated) it repeatedly since with predictions months later in date predicted. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210923 at 13:58 

20210923, 13:37  #55  
"Oliver"
Sep 2017
Porta Westfalica, DE
659 Posts 
Quote:
Last fiddled with by kruoli on 20210923 at 13:38 Reason: Missing letter. 

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